For an increasing number of today’s drivers, putting their best foot forward is the right one in both respects, as vehicles fitted with automatic gearboxes – both cars and light-commercials – surge in popularity.
According to the latest figures from Solera Cap HPI, self-shifters now account for almost a third of all cars on our roads, equating to 15.5 million units. That is a massive jump of nearly 120% during the decade between 2014 and 2024.
In contrast, manual gearbox sales have been in decline over the same period: from 708,000 to well under 300,000 in 2024. Indeed, analysts predict if the current trend carries on in the same path, sales will be extinct by 2030, when EVs take over. Already, almost one in four learner drivers are taking their tests in an automatic, with no intention of ever depressing a clutch pedal.
“Changing driving habits, especially in congested areas, have made automatics more appealing to drivers,” CAP HPI senior data director Stacey Warn told Motoring Research. “Advances in technology over the past decade have also greatly improved automatic transmissions’ efficiency and responsiveness.
“The rise in popularity of EVs” – which are solely automatic, at present – “has significantly contributed to the increasing shift towards automatics over manual”, added Warn.
Although lagging behind American, Austrian and Japanese markets where the automatic take-ups reach as much as 97%, Europe is fast catching up, says the Automatic Transmission Rebuilders Association (ATRA) – an American-led international trade group set up in the mid-1950s to police standards for service and repair. The highest proportion of automatic Ford vehicles in Europe are sold in Germany, followed by France, the UK, Spain, and Italy. Thirty years ago only 10-12% of new vehicles across Europe were automatic but according to one report by Telegrafi.com it now stands at 70%, with the biggest sales leap occurring during 2019-2020; a staggering change of 40%.
As the average age of the nation's vehicle parc rises, the question is whether the aftermarket is geared up for the inevitable increase in maintenance and repair work coming its way.
According to Data Trail MRU: “The continued global ageing of vehicle fleets, coupled with a general increase in vehicle mileage, will ensure a consistent demand for maintenance and repair services. As transmissions become more technologically advanced, the need for specialised diagnostic tools and highly skilled technicians will intensify, driving up the value of expert repair services and contributing to market expansion.”
It adds: “Emerging innovations are profoundly shaping the future of the transmission repair market by introducing smarter diagnostic tools, more efficient repair techniques, and sustainable practices. The integration of advanced sensor technology, telematics, and data analytics is enabling real-time monitoring of transmission health, moving the industry towards a more proactive, predictive maintenance model. This shift helps in identifying potential issues before they escalate, reducing the likelihood of catastrophic failures and extending the lifespan of the transmission system.”
It predicts that the future outlook for the transmission repair market between 2025 and 2032 is robust, because as transmissions become more advanced, the need for specialised diagnostic tools and highly skilled technicians will intensify.
That view is shared by Gary Camp of Automatic Transmission Services. The Essex firm was founded by Camp's father, who saw such a gap in the market half a century ago.
Camp has seen an increase in mainstream workshops attempting to tackle automatic gearbox repairs, perhaps by carrying out (relatively straightforward) clutch work. He warns, however, that delving more deeply requires experience plus the need for more specialised tooling and equipment – to the point that some repairs remain the domain of main dealers with specially trained technicians.
Camp says: “Transmissions are less reliable than when my father started the business, but that’s in part due to their complex electronics and now the biggest problem is obtaining parts and the right staff; many youngsters simply don’t want to work in the automotive trade.”
Like Camp, Aaron Stevens’ father started Bucks-based STA Aylesbury for the same reason during the 1970s – and because he ran an automatic Rover P6 3500 at the time.
He also believes reliability is worse, “but that’s because there’s much much of them around”. Mainstream workshops can successfully tackle some repairs, especially on the Volkswagen Group's dual-clutch (DSG) transmissions as there’s so much information available on them.
“Fully automatics are far more complex,” he warns. “Half of faults are down to electronic and software issues but CVTs [continuously-variable transmissions, which use belts instead of gears] are by far the worst for reliability – with Nissan’s Juke and Qashqai in particular we’re currently doing three a week.”
With reconditioned CVTs priced at an average of £3000, this is likely to make older vehicles uneconomical to repair.
But Camp doesn’t believe lack of maintenance or driver abuse is a major factor: “On some transmissions you can change the fluid yet can’t clean out the filters due to their locations.”
Stevens disagrees: “It’s important. Although some makes claim their units are sealed, we always encourage motorists to have them serviced.”
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